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Written on February 10th, 2022

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2022 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update. Multiple Listing ServiceÂŽ (MLSÂŽ) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 17 per cent from a record high 2021 to 103,250 units this year. In 2023 MLSÂŽresidential sales are forecast to fall an additional 12 per cent to 90,200 units.

“We expected home sales in 2022 do moderate from the frenetic pace of 2021,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, sales activity will remain high by historical standards.”

The BC housing market is entering 2022 with the lowest level of active listings on record and significant demand-side momentum. That means strong sales should persist through the first few months of the year and supply will remain severely limited. As a result, continued upward pressure on home prices is expected in all markets.

As a result, home prices are expected to rise by 8.5 per cent in 2022 with much of that gain happening in the first half of the year. With sales activity normalizing in 2023 and inventories rebuilding, market conditions around the province should improve and price growth is anticipated to slow to 2.7 per cent.

Credit BCREA

Low supply keeps upward pressure on home prices across Metro Vancouver’s housing market

The first month of 2022 saw home sales come down from last year’s record-setting pace, while low supply continued to cause home prices to edge higher across Metro Vancouver.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,285 in January 2022, a 4.4 per cent decrease from the 2,389 sales recorded in January 2021, and a 15 per cent decrease from the 2,688 homes sold in December 2021.

Last month’s sales were 25.3 per cent above the 10-year January sales average.

“Our listing inventory on MLS® is less than half of what would be optimal to begin the year. As a result, hopeful home buyers have limited choice in the market today. This trend is causing fierce competition for a scarce number of homes for sale, which, in turn, increases prices,” Keith Stewart, REBGV economist said.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLSÂŽ system in Metro Vancouver is 5,663, a 31.8 per cent decrease compared to January 2021 (8,306) and an 8.2 per cent increase compared to December 2021 (5,236).

“As we approach spring, we’ll keep a close eye on the impact of rising interest rates on buyers’ willingness to buy and on whether more home owners will opt to become sellers in what’s traditionally the busiest season of the year,” Stewart said. “With home prices reaching new highs in recent months, the need has never been greater for government to collaborate with the building community to expedite the creation of housing supply and provide more choice for those struggling to buy a home today.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for January 2022 is 40.3 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 28 per cent for detached homes, 51.6 per cent for townhomes, and 49.7 per cent for apartments. Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

Credit: REBGV